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March 2008 Archives

March 31, 2008

sometimes throwing bodies at the problem does work (update)

If there was ever a sign that we need to right-size the federal workforce, it is illustrated in stories like this. Why? Because of stories like this. No chance this guy gets on the gravy train if the procurement officer had been able to do a proper job.

In the end it’s not about where the paycheck comes from, it’s having enough trained people on hand to do the job. Even with a contracted workforce procurement shops are drowning under the workload and have been for some time. I would expect more fiascoes like the one above to surface in short order.

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March 27, 2008

no connection

You would think that politically savvy operators taking a trip to an oppressive dictatorship would have some inkling about who was paying the bills - or at least asked the question - but hey, as long as there is no photo of them and Saddam in a hot tub in the Babylon Palace, their is clearly no connection.

March 26, 2008

dirty tricks? try human nature (update)

Can we stop pretending that Obama’s passport data breach is anything but human nature? It is not like such events are rare, they are fairly common, not limited to politicians, and in a database nation, soon to be endemic.

Update: like I said, human nature.

go tom, its your birthday

On a more positive note, this is a welcome development:

After attracting repeated controversy, a premier product of the nation’s intelligence community — the National Intelligence Estimate — is getting a makeover by senior intelligence officials to improve its credibility.

Highlights:
  • Re-validating and vetting of sources
  • Ditching the quest for consensus
  • Giving more credence to the most powerful argument

What I think would be just as useful as any of these other changes is the formal inclusion of non-IC experts into the mix both early and often. This happens to an extent but not enough. The more diverse minds on the problem the better, and the injection of much more freely available and readily verifiable OSINT helps reduce the tunnel vision on possibly specious secrets.

still in fragging territory

Wow, 1-2% upward motion. At this rate they’ll be able to claim “a majority” trust the boss by about 2012.

See also:
HoTS briefing on workforce issues
Another HoTS briefing on workforce issues
More focused view on NSA workforce woes

riding the wave

Gee, I wonder what they’ll conclude?

March 25, 2008

the other wep

A really nice piece on “Words of Estimative Probability” at Sources & Methods.

This is essentially an attempt to address the “weasel word” problem that so many critics lament. As a famous dead white guy once said, “define your terms.” The problem with most critiques of intelligence work is that people have different definitions of “probably” and “possibly” and so on. I do this exercise in my own class and the results illustrate quite plainly that you and I can be very far apart on what “likely” means.

back in black (and white)

Where I channel NNT in the closing graphs.

March 24, 2008

some more reasons . . .

… for think tank 2.0:

A critique is fine, but the last sentence in the above is particularly flawed. If this is from the SSI’s Director of Research, it’s a good bet that the entire research agenda is hopelessly off-course. Perhaps the only way to rectify this is to flush the entire institute and start afresh.

and

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on embellishment

We went running through the jungle, looking for the s***.
The s*** found us.
There we were: two against thousands
The bullets were flying over-head; the mortar rounds fell like rain
The minutes drug on for hours; the hours seemed like days
But we finally got those two b@stards

its called 'accountability'

What gives credence to all those unkempt yahoos yelling about “Halliburton?” Nonsense like this (second item). Note the primary issue of concern here: “commercial” then “security.”

Number of times in the past six years we’ve been admonished to do X so that American deaths will not be in vain? Too many to count.

Gaining admission to the world of normal requires showing up and paying for a ticket. $114 million is a bargain.

Or you can feign dismay and disgust when people decide that they’re not signing up for empty slogans.

as long as it is about institutional credit . . .

… progress on the sharing front will always be modest and incremental:

But the FBI, protective of turf and disdainful of local initiative, froze Kelly’s department out of two New York-related terrorism investigations, officials say. When more than 100 top police detectives joined the FBI’s joint terrorism task force, they were initially not permitted to read the bureau’s case files.

“People have information, and they want to control information,” Kelly said in an interview at police headquarters, just five blocks from where the World Trade Center once stood. “Controlling information is power, and they don’t want to let it go — it is as fundamental as that.”

More significantly, check out the entrepreneurial response and how they (apparently) have overcome the whole “can’t trust the foreign born” issue:

Working with detectives posted overseas, undercover officers in New York and informants, Cohen has identified towns in South Africa, Yemen, Egypt, Jordan and Morocco that he wants NYPD officers to know. If they arrest anyone who has been to those towns, he wants to be told.

Cohen, the only person to have led the CIA’s clandestine service and its analytical division, still drinks coffee out of a CIA mug. He said his work with the NYPD has given him a sense of professional freedom and accomplishment that is hard to achieve in the bureaucratized intelligence world of Washington.

A fifth of Cohen’s staff was born overseas. He has 70 Arabic speakers working on counterterrorism cases, and lends some to the Defense Department and foreign intelligence agencies (emphasis mine).

March 22, 2008

again, plenty of room for everyone . . . (follow up)

… if forward-thinking, forward-leaning leadership were present:

Wiseburd, the creator of the Web monitoring site Internet Haganah, which collects and stores intelligence for governments to use, said he was responsible for the dismantling of thousands of extremist sites.

[…]

But a private intelligence contractor said winning the War on Terror isn’t just about shutting down sites; it’s about tackling the heart of the problem.

“Great. Somebody shut down a bunch of websites. What we’re trying to do is find out where the terrorists are.”

Assuming that the gov’t isn’t (and hasn’t) been a player in this domain is foolish; presuming that “amateurs” have no role here is equally nonsensical (the difference between any random CIIDG and SITE is a DUNS number and a cage code). Want to know who is going to help avoid the next failure? The guy who rallies the irregulars into an effective fighting force.

Follow-Up: For all the CIIDGs out there: assume our Uncle gets his act together WRT leveraging irregulars; what guidance would you like to receive/be willing to accept; what resources would you find useful/accept; what level of C2 would you be willing to accept?

Additionally, how do you define success?

March 21, 2008

old news on the analysis front

Remember, you read it hear first:

The overarching generality about the U.S. intelligence analytic community today is that most of it is engaged in work that is tactical, operational, or current. By most accounts, the relative lack of longer-term analysis has long been bemoaned. In other words, most analytic resources and activities are dedicated to intelligence reporting instead of attempting to attain the “deep understanding” of our adversaries that constitutes analysis.

Full Rand PDF here.

March 20, 2008

riddle me this

PAOs love to rail against IO types because “everyone knows” that IO is all about cooking the narrative and PA is nothing but truth-telling … please to explain this fiasco then, por favor.

March 19, 2008

too little too late?

On the heels of a post about filling key slots comes word that a bright bulb is about to be inserted … too bad the power is about to be cut. Imagine your info-centric agency actually run (or apparently in this case enabled) by guys who actually work at info-age speed and have a record of tangible accomplishments.

Don’t know whether to cheer or shake head ruefully.

help wanted . . . and wanted . . .

Aside from the obvious answers related to tenure, what does prevent the filling of such positions? Does it even get past the basic question of WTH you’re going to do after a year or is the focal point WTH you can get done in a year? Anyone who works/ed for our Uncle who tried to get something done on a Thursday afternoon at the start of three day weekend knows the drill: mission-shmission I’m headed to the shore.

From another angle; is the absence of occupants a sign that there is a shortage of takers, or an indication that, of all the glory-jobs that have gone to questionable characters, these are two slots that are off-limits to such practice?

What might I be missing … again, beyond the obvious?

on oversight

If for no other reason, you need watcher-watchers to avoid nonsense like this and this. Information proficiency this is not.

step one: recognize the uphill climb

From the guy with arguably the toughest job in the biz comes an open and frank statement of reality:

The government is at the “end of the beginning” of its efforts to successfully share homeland security and intelligence information, with significant cultural and administrative challenges still ahead, the country’s information sharing chief has said.

but the song remains the same

“You say ATEP, I say MASINT …”

the strong arm way

Heh. Reforming for domestic intel is so much easier in a real police state.

March 18, 2008

Sad

There was a time, when news like this would have been on the front page (or home page) of any newspaper of note. There was a time when events like this were not private affairs.

Sadly, not only do too few feel compelled to serve, but those that do can get neither the time of day nor fundamental recognition from those who send them downrange.

Influencing foreign audiences? How about being able to competently talk to our own?

Sad

There was a time, when news like this would have been on the front page (or home page) of any newspaper of note. There was a time when events like this were not private affairs.

Sadly, not only do too few feel compelled to serve, but those that do can get neither the time of day nor fundamental recognition from those who send them downrange.

Influencing foreign audiences
? How about being able to competently talk to our own?

March 17, 2008

Blogroll Addition

A little slow on the uptake on my part, but wanted to point outSources & Methods, from Kristan Wheaton at Mercyhurst. Good stuff.

March 13, 2008

a seam to be exploited

If, say, some CIIDG-types were keen on going that route …

Islamic extremists who regularly post messages to a pro-al-Qaida website in Egypt are accusing Afghanistan’s Taliban of straying from the path of global jihad. Prominent Taliban have responded by lashing back with criticism of their own.

March 12, 2008

fighting the long war with the jr. varsity

Let me preempt the inevitable brickbats by saying I never met a new/recent hire that wasn’t better educated than I was at that age (and probably more inquisitive to boot):

The Department of Defense will face a worldwide civilian manning challenge in the near future, because roughly 22 percent of its work force will reach retirement age within two years, a senior Defense Department official said Monday.

This follows on the heels of an earlier report:

Continue reading "fighting the long war with the jr. varsity" »

are we ready for this?

Dated, but indicative of life amongst warring factions (Iraq version):

Every time he drove, he feared this moment. Now, it was too late.

Ahmed, 30, was a Sunni Muslim. And he was in Shaab, a volatile, Shiite Muslim-dominated neighborhood …

So Ahmed set in motion a ritual that many Sunnis across a divided Baghdad now practice. He pushed in a cassette tape with Shiite religious songs and turned up the volume. He wrapped a piece of green cloth that he brought from the Imam Ali shrine in Najaf, one of Shiite Islam’s holiest sites, around his gearshift.

And he hung a small picture of Imam Ali, the son-in-law of the prophet Muhammad and the most revered Shiite saint, from his rearview mirror.

To the world outside, he was now a Shiite.

Continue reading "are we ready for this?" »

March 11, 2008

admit nothing, deny everything. . .

make counter accusations.

Natch the clarification comes from an arm of the People’s Daily …

March 10, 2008

A clear sign . . .

… that, whatever hope you might have once had of becoming President or even anyone remotely significant in the world, is dead, buried and well trod over.

By golly, you’ll show them. Don’t these people know you know what’s best for them?!

godsend

Four boxes and a threatened fifth, that was the mess under my desk. Here’s to an end to all that.

I see the light!

Legend has it that when dawn breaks vampires and other creatures of the night scurry into the shadows, but as the IC’s number two man recently suggested, it might be time for shadow-dwelling spooks to become daywalkers:

Continue reading "I see the light!" »

at what point . . .

… does someone raise their hand and say: “A license doesn’t equal a job?”

I guess never.

Not an excuse for shoddy enforcement, just a suggestion that economics might play a larger factor here than is readily acknowledged.

NatSec Relevence Thoughts

Can John be right? Perhaps not entirely, but for every point scored on the “it’s happening somewhere” front we have to remind ourselves that X entities, each with their own futures shops, do not necessarily a coherent effort make. What it most assuredly does is perpetuate the worst of the current system: cannibalization, in-fighting, thinning of already scarce resources, and of course: a largely closed process.

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Mercyhurst Tackles Non-State Actors in SSA

The Mercyhurst wiki assessment on non-state actors in sub-Saharan Africa.

A little too much “likely” for my taste (if sourcing is that good and confidence is that high, well, no amount of caveats are going to save you if you’re wrong so you might as well stick your chest out) but the mix of text, graphics, and geo make for a nice and informative product; more so that you’d get in print, which is still sadly in too widespread use.

Blow this out, make everyone contribute this way exclusively, and watch the job become much more about capturing and exploiting knowledge and less 30 years of a series of discrete research paper assignments.

March 4, 2008

Book Review: Spying Blind

Flying regularly again so its catch up on book backlog time. Last trip: Amy Zegart’s Spying Blind: The CIA, the FBI, and the Origins of 9/11

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